Intel World Open Beijing · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 15 games
Linasignature
White丶Album · 14 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
Queen of Painoften banned
White丶Album · 12 games
Snapfire
Fantasy · 12 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
474 picks · 341 bans
Mars
437 picks · 623 bans
Weaver
366 picks · 809 bans
Queen of Pain
365 picks · 460 bans
Snapfire
354 picks · 188 bans
Kunkka
290 picks · 484 bans
Spirit Breaker
281 picks · 422 bans
Ember Spirit
255 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head5 – 7
Model total61% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:19
Invictus Gaming 39%Team Aster 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 27:14.
Game 2prediction correct16:42
Invictus Gaming 39%Team Aster 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:05.
Game 3prediction correct22:44
Invictus Gaming 39%Team Aster 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 50:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 61%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3