Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 11 games
Iooften banned
Puppey · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 8 games
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Outworld Destroyersignature
SumaiL · 7 games
Tundra Esports
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 15 games
Banesignature
Fata · 12 games
Doomsignature
33 · 12 games
Batridersignature
Nine · 11 games
Dark Seersignature
33 · 11 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 11 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 11 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
473 picks · 341 bans
Mars
437 picks · 623 bans
Weaver
366 picks · 809 bans
Queen of Pain
365 picks · 460 bans
Snapfire
354 picks · 188 bans
Kunkka
290 picks · 484 bans
Spirit Breaker
280 picks · 422 bans
Ember Spirit
255 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:28
Team Secret 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenNisha
Wraith KingSkiter
InvokerSumaiL
Beastmaster33
Spirit Breakericeiceice
PuckNine
GrimstrokeYapzOr
IoSneyking
JakiroPuppey
BaneFata
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1