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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 1:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 11 games
82%
Io
Iooften banned
Puppey · 8 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 8 games
63%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 8 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
86%
Magnus
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
71%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
YapzOr · 7 games
71%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyersignature
SumaiL · 7 games
86%

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 6 games
83%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Miracle- · 4 games
75%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 4 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
iLTW · 4 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
KuroKy · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 4 games
25%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
472 picks · 340 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
437 picks · 622 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
365 picks · 458 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
364 picks · 809 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
354 picks · 188 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
288 picks · 484 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
279 picks · 421 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
255 picks · 346 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total57% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:18
Team Secret 53%Nigma Galaxy 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 43:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerNisha
50% · 78 games52% · 143 games
RazoriLTW
Razor
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Propheticeiceice
56% · 73 games48% · 158 games
InvokerMiracle-
Invoker
Kunkka
KunkkaSumaiL
51% · 215 games51% · 191 game
Nyx AssassinMinD_ContRoL
Nyx Assassin
Rubick
RubickYapzOr
48% · 226 games45% · 196 games
WeaverGH
Weaver
Io
IoPuppey
47% · 182 games54% · 86 games
Winter WyvernKuroKy
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 57%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1