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Intel World Open Beijing · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 20 games
70%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 18 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
87%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 13 games
85%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Xiao8 · 12 games
83%
Luna
Lunasignature
Ame · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 12 games
92%

Xtreme Gaming

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
90%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 8 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 8 games
75%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Another · 7 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 6 games
83%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Pyw · 6 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 6 games
83%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Another · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
469 picks · 338 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
435 picks · 620 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
365 picks · 452 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
361 picks · 806 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
351 picks · 188 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
287 picks · 479 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
275 picks · 419 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
255 picks · 345 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:44
LGD Gaming 78%Xtreme Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 58:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
37% · 137 games51% · 151 game
Ursalou
Ursa
Invoker
InvokerNothingToSay
51% · 104 games51% · 236 games
Death ProphetPaparazi
Death Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterFaith_bian
56% · 159 games49% · 112 games
Dark SeerELeVeN
Dark Seer
Bane
Baney`
55% · 137 games54% · 169 games
Spirit BreakerPyw
Spirit Breaker
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
48% · 151 game41% · 20 games
LichDy
Lich
Game 2prediction missed17:29
LGD Gaming 77%Xtreme Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
46% · 257 games52% · 197 games
Templar Assassinlou
Templar Assassin
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNothingToSay
48% · 237 games46% · 248 games
LinaPaparazi
Lina
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFaith_bian
47% · 122 games50% · 287 games
TidehunterELeVeN
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierXinQ
52% · 252 games49% · 225 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Bane
Baney`
59% · 248 games50% · 159 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed12:34
LGD Gaming 75%Xtreme Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyAme
48% · 237 games56% · 176 games
Templar Assassinlou
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
41% · 301 game50% · 202 games
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Storm Spirit
Lycan
LycanFaith_bian
53% · 85 games58% · 197 games
PhoenixELeVeN
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickXinQ
46% · 200 games51% · 222 games
SnapfireDy
Snapfire
Tidehunter
Tidehuntery`
48% · 252 games50% · 278 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 91%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3