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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO1
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Execrationwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
boombell · 24 games
67%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
JaCkky · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 10 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 10 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Q · 8 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
50%

Execration

Lina
Linaoften banned
Bob · 17 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 16 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
31%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bob · 10 games
70%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 9 games
11%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
466 picks · 338 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
435 picks · 617 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
365 picks · 449 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
360 picks · 805 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 188 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
287 picks · 476 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
275 picks · 417 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
253 picks · 345 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 24%
Hero pool strength55% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total64% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:25
Motivate.Trust Gaming 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Execration in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingJaCkky
52% · 145 games47% · 206 games
LinaBob
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritFearless
54% · 128 games50% · 211 games
TidehunterKimizu
Tidehunter
Death Prophet
Death Prophetboombell
48% · 150 games51% · 152 games
BaneRR
Bane
Mirana
MiranaQ
50% · 146 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 64%
Series resultExecration 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1