Motivate.Trust Gaming vs Neon Esports — prediction DPC2—Ю · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO1

result vs prediction

Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:1

series probability

45%55%

probability at match start · final 0:1

Neon Esportswin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lionsignature

boombell · 24 games

67%

Medusaoften banned

JaCkky · 12 games

58%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Fearless · 11 games

55%

Gyrocoptersignature

JaCkky · 10 games

70%

Monkey Kingsignature

Q · 10 games

80%

Storm Spiritsignature

Fearless · 9 games

67%

Mirana

Q · 8 games

50%

Wraith Kingoften banned

JaCkky · 8 games

50%

Neon Esports

Lionsignature

NARMAN · 24 games

67%

Marssignature

Enryu · 20 games

60%

Tidehuntersignature

Enryu · 20 games

70%

Mirana

NARMAN · 17 games

47%

Templar Assassinoften banned

Yopaj · 16 games

44%

Gyrocopter

Unknown- · 15 games

53%

Kunkkaoften banned

MamangDaya · 14 games

50%

Queen of Painsignature

Mikoto · 14 games

64%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Bane

466 picks · 338 bans

58%

Mars

435 picks · 617 bans

50%

Queen of Pain

365 picks · 448 bans

51%

Weaver

359 picks · 805 bans

57%

Snapfire

350 picks · 188 bans

46%

Kunkka

286 picks · 476 bans

55%

Spirit Breaker

275 picks · 417 bans

54%

Ember Spirit

253 picks · 344 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)45% vs 43%

Hero pool strength51% Motivate.Trust Gaming

Head-to-head2 – 5

Model total55% Neon Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct12:24

Motivate.Trust Gaming 47%Neon Esports 53%

The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 33:33.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo