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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO1
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Neon Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Lina
Linaoften banned
Bob · 17 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bob · 10 games
70%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 9 games
11%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 9 games
56%

Neon Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 23 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Enryu · 20 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 19 games
68%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 17 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Unknown- · 15 games
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Mikoto · 14 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
465 picks · 338 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
434 picks · 617 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
365 picks · 447 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
359 picks · 805 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 188 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
285 picks · 476 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
275 picks · 417 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
253 picks · 344 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% Neon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total67% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:30
Execration 42%Neon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 28:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBob
56% · 151 game47% · 49 games
Drow RangerPalos
Drow Ranger
Mars
MarsKimizu
49% · 391 game48% · 170 games
KunkkaMamangDaya
Kunkka
Bane
BaneRR
62% · 199 games43% · 256 games
TidehunterEnryu
Tidehunter
39% · 266 games
LionNARMAN
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 67%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1