Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4 Zoomerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Queen of Painsignature
iAnnihilate · 6 games
Lunaoften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 4 games
Rubick
The Warden · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
The Warden · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Sunlight · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Sunlight · 2 games
Earth Spirit
The Warden · 2 games
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
456 picks · 338 bans
Mars
430 picks · 613 bans
Queen of Pain
362 picks · 442 bans
Weaver
356 picks · 800 bans
Snapfire
344 picks · 186 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 472 bans
Spirit Breaker
275 picks · 409 bans
Ember Spirit
252 picks · 343 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:17
Wildcard Gaming 31%4 Zoomers 69%
The model gave 69% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 35:39.
Game 2prediction correct36:14
Wildcard Gaming 31%4 Zoomers 69%
The model gave 69% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 35:18.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 69%
Series result4 Zoomers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2