Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Undyingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 10 games
Iooften banned
KJ · 9 games
Mirana
Thiolicor · 8 games
Svensignature
Costabile · 8 games
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 6 games
Ogre Magi
KJ · 6 games
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
456 picks · 336 bans
Mars
430 picks · 613 bans
Queen of Pain
360 picks · 442 bans
Weaver
356 picks · 798 bans
Snapfire
342 picks · 186 bans
Kunkka
280 picks · 472 bans
Spirit Breaker
275 picks · 409 bans
Ember Spirit
252 picks · 343 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 64%
Hero pool strength61% Team Undying
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total57% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
Evil Geniuses 43%Team Undying 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 34:04.
Game 2prediction correct16:34
Evil Geniuses 43%Team Undying 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 39:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 57%
Series resultTeam Undying 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2