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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Bane
Banesignature
Save- · 10 games
80%
Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 10 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 10 games
80%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
1ls · 9 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Nightfall · 8 games
75%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
gpK~ · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 8 games
63%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
78%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 17 games
65%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 16 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
73%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Collapse · 14 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 14 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 335 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
428 picks · 610 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
358 picks · 439 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
354 picks · 797 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 185 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
280 picks · 469 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
273 picks · 407 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
251 picks · 342 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 79%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total81% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:24
Virtus.pro 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 27:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPure~
57% · 156 games42% · 56 games
Drow RangerYatoro
Drow Ranger
Queen of Pain
Queen of PaingpK~
50% · 164 games49% · 188 games
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
52% · 119 games45% · 88 games
Legion CommanderCollapse
Legion Commander
Dark Willow
Dark Willowyamich
54% · 180 games43% · 301 game
LionMiposhka
Lion
Bane
BaneXakoda
59% · 195 games48% · 181 game
IoMira
Io
Game 2prediction correct19:26
Virtus.pro 32%Team Spirit 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassingpK~
55% · 200 games46% · 206 games
LinaTORONTOTOKYO
Lina
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPure~
47% · 190 games49% · 91 game
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDM
39% · 84 games56% · 58 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirityamich
46% · 47 games56% · 154 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkXakoda
49% · 181 game57% · 193 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 81%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2