Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Gamingwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Unknownloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Gaming
Dawnbreakeroften banned
CHAAANNN · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Mingatte · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
Demon · 4 games
Hoodwink
Demon · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Lissex · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Disruptor
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Team Unknown
Gyrocopter
Argius · 4 games
Iooften banned
FeelinG · 4 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Greedy · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Grimstroke
Moonlight · 3 games
Lunaoften banned
Argius · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Argius · 3 games
Bane
FeelinG · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
452 picks · 335 bans
Mars
427 picks · 609 bans
Queen of Pain
358 picks · 438 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 797 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 183 bans
Kunkka
279 picks · 468 bans
Spirit Breaker
273 picks · 405 bans
Ember Spirit
251 picks · 342 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 20%
Hero pool strength62% Omega Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total65% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:15
Omega Gaming 58%Team Unknown 42%
The model gave 58% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 28:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingMingatte
KunkkaArgius
BeastmasterLissex
InvokerBlackSoul
DawnbreakerCHAAANNN
Sand KingNoName
HoodwinkDemon
Dark WillowMoonlight
56% · 103 games
DisruptorFeelinG
Game 2prediction correct53:31
Omega Gaming 59%Team Unknown 41%
The model gave 59% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingMingatte
TinkerBlackSoul
Skywrath MageDemon
LifestealerArgius
MarsLissex
Sand KingNoName
DawnbreakerCHAAANNN
GrimstrokeMoonlight
54% · 148 games
BaneFeelinG
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 65%
Series resultOmega Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2