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Intel World Open Beijing · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 19 games
68%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 17 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
92%
Luna
Lunasignature
Ame · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 12 games
92%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 12 games
92%
Tinker
Tinkersignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
83%

Team Aster

Lion
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
73%
Lina
Linasignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 13 games
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 11 games
73%
Lich
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
447 picks · 334 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 608 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
356 picks · 435 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
351 picks · 794 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
337 picks · 183 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
276 picks · 465 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
271 picks · 401 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
251 picks · 342 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total85% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:27
LGD Gaming 73%Team Aster 27%
The model gave 73% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
48% · 140 games57% · 188 games
RazorOri
Razor
Wraith King
Wraith KingAme
55% · 149 games51% · 135 games
LifestealerMonet
Lifestealer
Broodmother
BroodmotherFaith_bian
51% · 41 game48% · 158 games
Spirit BreakerXxs
Spirit Breaker
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
46% · 213 games48% · 231 game
IoBoBoKa
Io
Mars
Marsy`
49% · 333 games48% · 164 games
TuskFantasy
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct34:25
LGD Gaming 71%Team Aster 29%
The model gave 71% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
59% · 220 games54% · 254 games
LinaOri
Lina
Leshrac
LeshracNothingToSay
51% · 199 games52% · 222 games
Wraith KingMonet
Wraith King
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFaith_bian
48% · 217 games50% · 448 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
37% · 343 games51% · 181 game
Dark WillowBoBoKa
Dark Willow
Tidehunter
Tidehuntery`
44% · 379 games54% · 253 games
BaneFantasy
Bane
Game 3prediction correct41:15
LGD Gaming 73%Team Aster 27%
The model gave 73% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
59% · 200 games50% · 155 games
MedusaMonet
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNothingToSay
41% · 275 games49% · 241 game
Death ProphetOri
Death Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaFaith_bian
52% · 193 games46% · 445 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Pangolier
PangolierXinQ
51% · 324 games46% · 224 games
SnapfireBoBoKa
Snapfire
Bane
Baney`
56% · 224 games51% · 151 game
TuskFantasy
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 85%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3