?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
boombell · 24 games
67%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
JaCkky · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 10 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 10 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Q · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Fearless · 7 games
57%

Neon Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 23 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Enryu · 20 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 18 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 17 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Unknown- · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
446 picks · 331 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 605 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
354 picks · 433 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
351 picks · 790 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 183 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
273 picks · 464 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
269 picks · 399 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
250 picks · 340 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total53% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:10
Motivate.Trust Gaming 51%Neon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerJaCkky
60% · 81 game49% · 118 games
Templar AssassinMamangDaya
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaFearless
50% · 116 games57% · 38 games
LifestealerPalos
Lifestealer
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerQ
42% · 64 games56% · 111 games
BeastmasterEnryu
Beastmaster
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernboombell
46% · 94 games43% · 88 games
RubickNARMAN
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct36:39
Motivate.Trust Gaming 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 46:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingJaCkky
49% · 197 games50% · 159 games
Queen of PainPalos
Queen of Pain
Broodmother
BroodmotherFearless
44% · 72 games57% · 142 games
Templar AssassinMamangDaya
Templar Assassin
Snapfire
SnapfireQ
49% · 271 game51% · 193 games
TidehunterEnryu
Tidehunter
Death Prophet
Death Prophetboombell
50% · 238 games50% · 284 games
LionNARMAN
Lion
Game 3prediction missed16:31
Motivate.Trust Gaming 52%Neon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaFearless
50% · 151 game46% · 39 games
Anti-MagePalos
Anti-Mage
Morphling
MorphlingJaCkky
46% · 102 games46% · 128 games
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierQ
53% · 119 games52% · 142 games
Queen of PainEnryu
Queen of Pain
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerboombell
54% · 92 games51% · 155 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 53%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3