?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

496 Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Bombi · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Red · 7 games
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bombi · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Ghost · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xsilearn · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Ohaiyo · 3 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ghost · 3 games
0%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
50%

Army Geniuses

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Lym- · 15 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 12 games
17%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 12 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 11 games
27%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
446 picks · 331 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
421 picks · 604 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
354 picks · 431 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
350 picks · 787 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
333 picks · 183 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
273 picks · 461 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
269 picks · 395 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
248 picks · 339 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 30%
Hero pool strength55% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% 496 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:27
496 Gaming 53%Army Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
47% · 173 games45% · 74 games
Drow Rangerdb-
Drow Ranger
Mars
Marsxsilearn
51% · 475 games53% · 107 games
Nature's ProphetwoMy
Nature's Prophet
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerRed
48% · 111 games54% · 294 games
PuckAzur4
Puck
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBombi
54% · 157 games46% · 288 games
SnapfireLym-
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingOhaiyo
54% · 96 games48% · 249 games
TidehunterVarizh
Tidehunter
Game 2prediction missed10:33
496 Gaming 53%Army Geniuses 47%
The model gave 53% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 25:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinGhost
55% · 192 games55% · 217 games
Wraith Kingdb-
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxsilearn
55% · 277 games44% · 194 games
Storm SpiritAzur4
Storm Spirit
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerRed
50% · 120 games51% · 216 games
TidehunterwoMy
Tidehunter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBombi
52% · 156 games43% · 274 games
SnapfireLym-
Snapfire
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOhaiyo
44% · 312 games53% · 156 games
WeaverVarizh
Weaver
Model check result
Model favorite496 Gaming · 53%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2