Intel World Open Beijing · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Aster.Aries
Marsoften banned
生死 · 10 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ulu · 7 games
Winter Wyvern
Fantasy · 6 games
Iooften banned
TK · 5 games
Lion
TK · 5 games
Ogre Magi
RedPanda · 5 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Treant Protector
RedPanda · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
445 picks · 331 bans
Mars
420 picks · 603 bans
Queen of Pain
353 picks · 430 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 785 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 183 bans
Kunkka
273 picks · 461 bans
Spirit Breaker
269 picks · 393 bans
Ember Spirit
247 picks · 339 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:20
Invictus Gaming 67%Aster.Aries 33%
The model gave 67% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 35:28.
Game 2prediction missed25:21
Invictus Gaming 67%Aster.Aries 33%
The model gave 67% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 31:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 67%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2