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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lilgunwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lion
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Meracle · 10 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
inYourdreaM · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
AlaCrity · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
AlaCrity · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 7 games
86%
Medusa
Medusasignature
inYourdreaM · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
43%

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
443 picks · 330 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
419 picks · 601 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
353 picks · 430 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
348 picks · 784 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 183 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
273 picks · 458 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
267 picks · 392 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
246 picks · 339 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:36
Nigma Galaxy SEA 80%Lilgun 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Lilgun in 44:43.
Game 2prediction missed14:46
Nigma Galaxy SEA 80%Lilgun 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Lilgun in 37:12.
Game 3prediction missed33:41
Nigma Galaxy SEA 80%Lilgun 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Lilgun in 57:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 80%
Series resultLilgun 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3