Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quincy Crewloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 10 games
Iooften banned
KJ · 9 games
Mirana
Thiolicor · 8 games
Svensignature
Costabile · 8 games
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 6 games
Ogre Magi
KJ · 6 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
443 picks · 330 bans
Mars
419 picks · 601 bans
Queen of Pain
353 picks · 430 bans
Weaver
348 picks · 784 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 183 bans
Kunkka
273 picks · 458 bans
Spirit Breaker
267 picks · 392 bans
Ember Spirit
246 picks · 339 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 80%
Hero pool strength61% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 52%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect