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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 12 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 8 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
Misha · 7 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 7 games
43%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Taiga · 7 games
71%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 7 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Saksa · 6 games
83%

Tundra Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 15 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 12 games
83%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 11 games
82%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Nine · 11 games
82%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 11 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 11 games
82%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Fata · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 329 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
416 picks · 601 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
351 picks · 425 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
347 picks · 781 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 182 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
273 picks · 452 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
266 picks · 391 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
246 picks · 335 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total71% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:34
OG 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYuragi
50% · 65 games51% · 272 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Mars
MarsATF
47% · 453 games49% · 424 games
PuckNine
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
46% · 386 games50% · 125 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTaiga
50% · 137 games52% · 296 games
WeaverSneyking
Weaver
Bane
BaneMisha
55% · 250 games49% · 174 games
RazorFata
Razor
Game 2prediction correct20:26
OG 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
45% · 193 games48% · 310 games
PuckNine
Puck
Huskar
HuskarYuragi
50% · 4 games53% · 145 games
RazorSkiter
Razor
Mars
MarsATF
49% · 409 games48% · 100 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressTaiga
49% · 171 game55% · 165 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMisha
47% · 132 games59% · 189 games
BaneFata
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 71%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2