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Intel World Open Beijing · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 8 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 7 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 6 games
83%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Pyw · 6 games
83%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Another · 6 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 5 games
60%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Another · 5 games
60%

LBZS

Death Prophet
Death Prophet
Shanks · 8 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 4 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
CatYou · 3 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 3 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 329 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
416 picks · 601 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
350 picks · 424 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
346 picks · 780 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 182 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
273 picks · 451 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
265 picks · 390 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
246 picks · 335 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:21
Xtreme Gaming 58%LBZS 42%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelou
59% · 80 games49% · 206 games
Death ProphetMolasses
Death Prophet
Lycan
LycanELeVeN
55% · 54 games41% · 88 games
ViperShanks
Viper
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPaparazi
54% · 87 games48% · 129 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPyw
54% · 49 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDy
47% · 153 games
Game 2prediction correct30:24
Xtreme Gaming 59%LBZS 41%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kinglou
48% · 73 games52% · 99 games
ViperShanks
Viper
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPaparazi
46% · 81 game42% · 75 games
Night StalkerMolasses
Night Stalker
Timbersaw
TimbersawELeVeN
40% · 78 games55% · 188 games
IoCatYou
Io
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPyw
56% · 57 games
Weaver
WeaverDy
58% · 73 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 65%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2