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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusk
rue · 27 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 25 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 22 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 20 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 20 games
60%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 17 games
47%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 26 games
77%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 24 games
75%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 20 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 19 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
627 picks · 973 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 435 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 627 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 1007 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 477 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
430 picks · 261 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 510 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
403 picks · 561 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:29
Team Spirit 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 56:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
67% · 15 games38% · 33 games
AlchemistPure~
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
55% · 243 games55% · 100 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
51% · 68 games52% · 148 games
Doom33
Doom
Snapfire
Snapfirerue
50% · 148 games46% · 153 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
42% · 211 games52% · 251 game
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct12:29
Team Spirit 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYatoro
44% · 116 games46% · 165 games
MuertaPure~
Muerta
Razor
RazorCollapse
53% · 102 games42% · 102 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
61% · 351 game48% · 125 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanto
54% · 247 games49% · 291 game
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerrue
49% · 56 games52% · 189 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2