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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 20 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tims · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Skem · 13 games
85%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
69%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 11 games
82%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 11 games
73%

Execration

Lina
Linaoften banned
Bob · 17 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 16 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 13 games
62%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 12 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bob · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 9 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
438 picks · 324 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
410 picks · 599 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
348 picks · 418 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
343 picks · 776 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 182 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
269 picks · 449 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
265 picks · 385 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
244 picks · 334 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 26%
Hero pool strength59% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total85% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
BOOM Esports 74%Execration 26%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 19:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorTino-
44% · 104 games51% · 335 games
PuckBob
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
54% · 136 games53% · 191 game
Death ProphetKimizu
Death Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightFbz
33% · 154 games56% · 106 games
Ogre MagiRR
Ogre Magi
Mirana
MiranaTims
49% · 133 games
Bane
BaneSkem
52% · 105 games
Game 2prediction correct37:9
BOOM Esports 73%Execration 27%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorTino-
54% · 125 games54% · 459 games
PuckBob
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightFbz
48% · 201 game46% · 412 games
MarsKimizu
Mars
Batrider
BatriderYopaj
47% · 121 game55% · 89 games
Treant ProtectorRR
Treant Protector
Lion
LionTims
48% · 369 games
Weaver
WeaverSkem
45% · 144 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 85%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2