Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 14 games
Linasignature
White丶Album · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
BoBoKa · 11 games
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
Lunaoften banned
Monet · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
434 picks · 320 bans
Mars
406 picks · 594 bans
Queen of Pain
343 picks · 413 bans
Weaver
339 picks · 767 bans
Snapfire
327 picks · 179 bans
Kunkka
267 picks · 446 bans
Spirit Breaker
262 picks · 377 bans
Ember Spirit
242 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head5 – 6
Model total59% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:16
Invictus Gaming 41%Team Aster 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:20.
Game 2prediction correct15:33
Invictus Gaming 41%Team Aster 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 59%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2