Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Interitusloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Balrogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Interitus
Centaur Warrunner
H1j4ck · 7 games
Bane
DFlash · 4 games
Jakiro
DFlash · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Rayuur · 4 games
Lunaoften banned
FCR · 3 games
Ogre Magi
DFlash · 3 games
Rubick
Amin · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Amin · 3 games
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
433 picks · 318 bans
Mars
405 picks · 591 bans
Queen of Pain
341 picks · 409 bans
Weaver
338 picks · 762 bans
Snapfire
325 picks · 179 bans
Kunkka
265 picks · 443 bans
Spirit Breaker
260 picks · 372 bans
Ember Spirit
242 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Interitus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:30
Interitus 29%Balrogs 71%
The model gave 71% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 25:52.
Game 2prediction correct26:33
Interitus 29%Balrogs 71%
The model gave 71% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 34:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 71%
Series resultBalrogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2