Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phoenix Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 12 games
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
Linasignature
White丶Album · 11 games
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
Grimstrokesignature
BoBoKa · 10 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
Lunaoften banned
Monet · 10 games
Phoenix Gaming
Death Prophet
Shining · 7 games
Bane
Lwwnb · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Shining · 5 games
Dark Willow
Helios · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 3 games
Grimstroke
Lwwnb · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
M77 · 2 games
Tusk
Helios · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
432 picks · 317 bans
Mars
404 picks · 590 bans
Queen of Pain
338 picks · 404 bans
Weaver
335 picks · 758 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 179 bans
Kunkka
261 picks · 445 bans
Spirit Breaker
255 picks · 370 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 167 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 22%
Hero pool strength67% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:21
Team Aster 71%Phoenix Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMonet
Queen of Painzone-
Spirit BreakerXxs
ViperShining
Ember SpiritOri
TuskHelios
GrimstrokeFantasy
UndyingLwwnb
LionBoBoKa
Game 2prediction correct24:6
Team Aster 69%Phoenix Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 17:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaMonet
Void Spiritzone-
LinaOri
TidehunterShining
Legion CommanderXxs
MiranaHelios
IoBoBoKa
Ogre MagiLwwnb
BaneFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 83%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2