Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Bane
zzq · 7 games
Pangolier
zeal · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
shiro · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
7e · 4 games
Rubick
pLAnet · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
zeal · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
pLAnet · 3 games
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 2 games
LBZS
Death Prophet
Shanks · 7 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 4 games
Iooften banned
CatYou · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Tusk
CatYou · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 2 games
Razoroften banned
Shanks · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
431 picks · 320 bans
Mars
405 picks · 588 bans
Queen of Pain
338 picks · 403 bans
Weaver
334 picks · 759 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 181 bans
Kunkka
261 picks · 445 bans
Spirit Breaker
254 picks · 369 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 169 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% EHOME
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:6
EHOME 55%LBZS 45%
The model gave 55% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 28:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingshiro
Death ProphetShanks
Razor7e
Legion CommanderMolasses
Tidehunterzeal
WeaverCatYou
RubickpLAnet
Nyx Assassinzzq
Game 2prediction correct39:17
EHOME 52%LBZS 48%
The model gave 52% on EHOME — the game was taken by EHOME in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursashiro
KunkkaShanks
Lina7e
TidehunterMolasses
Spirit BreakerpLAnet
MiranaCatYou
Bloodseekerzeal
Banezzq
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 57%
Series resultEHOME 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2