Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Feltloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Felt
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 7 games
Axe
Zore · 4 games
Bane
Steelborco · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Steelborco · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
430 picks · 319 bans
Mars
404 picks · 587 bans
Queen of Pain
336 picks · 401 bans
Weaver
334 picks · 754 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 180 bans
Kunkka
260 picks · 444 bans
Spirit Breaker
253 picks · 365 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 168 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:34
KBU.US 73%Felt 27%
The model gave 73% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Felt in 40:37.
Game 2prediction missed30:38
KBU.US 73%Felt 27%
The model gave 73% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Felt in 40:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 73%
Series resultKBU.US 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2