Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:2series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SG e-sportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
430 picks · 319 bans
Mars
404 picks · 587 bans
Queen of Pain
336 picks · 401 bans
Weaver
334 picks · 754 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 180 bans
Kunkka
260 picks · 444 bans
Spirit Breaker
253 picks · 365 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 168 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 20%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total77% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:42
beastcoast 77%SG e-sports 23%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 27:07.
Game 2prediction missed45:19
beastcoast 77%SG e-sports 23%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 30:26.
Game 3prediction missed20:38
beastcoast 77%SG e-sports 23%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 35:35.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 77%
Series resultSG e-sports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3