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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 1:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Mars
Marssignature
Oscar · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 14 games
93%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
RdO · 13 games
54%
Io
Iooften banned
KJ · 12 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Michael · 12 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Panda · 10 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
Accel · 10 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 10 games
40%

Thunder Awaken

Mars
Marsoften banned
Frank · 15 games
27%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
DarkMago · 8 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 7 games
86%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mjz · 7 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
17%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
428 picks · 316 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 584 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
336 picks · 396 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
332 picks · 751 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
323 picks · 178 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
259 picks · 443 bans
57%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
253 picks · 364 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 167 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 70%
Hero pool strength61% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total89% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:32
NoPing VPN 28%Thunder Awaken 72%
The model gave 72% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverRdO
54% · 222 games47% · 83 games
Templar AssassinPakazs
Templar Assassin
Magnus
Magnus4nalog
56% · 110 games45% · 95 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorThiolicor
54% · 97 games41% · 131 game
TidehunterOscar
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
60% · 103 games44% · 143 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
43% · 80 games
Ogre MagiPanda
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed49:21
NoPing VPN 27%Thunder Awaken 73%
The model gave 73% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 44:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRdO
45% · 100 games50% · 145 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Puck
Puck4nalog
49% · 251 game52% · 126 games
BatriderDarkMago
Batrider
Weaver
WeaverThiolicor
51% · 173 games51% · 193 games
TidehunterOscar
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
47% · 137 games62% · 110 games
EarthshakerMatthew
Earthshaker
42% · 87 games
Ogre MagiPanda
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction correct9:21
NoPing VPN 27%Thunder Awaken 73%
The model gave 73% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 24:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorRdO
47% · 132 games35% · 92 games
GyrocopterPakazs
Gyrocopter
Invoker
Invoker4nalog
54% · 128 games52% · 87 games
TimbersawOscar
Timbersaw
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorThiolicor
53% · 85 games57% · 88 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptorKJ
45% · 139 games51% · 128 games
Monkey KingMatthew
Monkey King
56% · 89 games
Ogre MagiPanda
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 89%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3