Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 17 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
Magnussignature
Collapse · 14 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 14 games
Tiny
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
427 picks · 315 bans
Mars
400 picks · 582 bans
Queen of Pain
334 picks · 394 bans
Weaver
329 picks · 750 bans
Snapfire
322 picks · 178 bans
Kunkka
257 picks · 441 bans
Spirit Breaker
250 picks · 363 bans
Disruptor
240 picks · 166 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 70%
Hero pool strength62% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total78% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:7
Team Spirit 78%HellRaisers 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 22:36.
Game 2prediction correct29:16
Team Spirit 78%HellRaisers 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 78%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2