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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
jAMES · 14 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Actor · 14 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 10 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 10 games
20%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Ark · 9 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 8 games
38%

B8 Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 26 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 23 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
59%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 17 games
47%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dendi · 17 games
24%
Bane
Bane
Sammyboy · 14 games
57%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Watson · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
427 picks · 312 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 580 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
332 picks · 394 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
329 picks · 749 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 178 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
255 picks · 440 bans
57%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
249 picks · 361 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 166 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 11%
Hero pool strength54% B8 Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total62% Fantastic Five
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:24
Fantastic Five 57%B8 Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaArk
49% · 154 games58% · 127 games
TidehunterpJonn
Tidehunter
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
48% · 288 games54% · 115 games
LinaDendi
Lina
Jakiro
JakiroCorrupted
46% · 43 games50% · 136 games
Wraith Kingv1olent-
Wraith King
47% · 107 games
WeaverLagoona
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct39:33
Fantastic Five 55%B8 Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 50:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaArk
47% · 204 games56% · 80 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMalr1ne
43% · 152 games56% · 55 games
BeastmasterpJonn
Beastmaster
Jakiro
JakiroCorrupted
45% · 38 games54% · 124 games
PuckDendi
Puck
56% · 135 games
LionLagoona
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteFantastic Five · 62%
Series resultFantastic Five 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2