DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 31 game
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 28 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 26 games
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 21 game
Leshrac
Moon · 20 games
Marsoften banned
zeal · 19 games
Team Yandex
Jakirosignature
Malady · 32 games
Tusksignature
Malady · 32 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 26 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
Axesignature
Noticed · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
622 picks · 969 bans
Tusk
511 picks · 434 bans
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 624 bans
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 1001 bans
Tiny
430 picks · 474 bans
Warlock
426 picks · 261 bans
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 510 bans
Mars
401 picks · 555 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 59%
Hero pool strength61% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total70% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:30
Yakult Brothers 38%Team Yandex 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightflyfly
Shadow FiendWatson
LeshracMoon
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
RazorYang
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Phoenix天命
TinySaksa
ClockwerkBoBoKa
WarlockMalady
Game 2prediction missed38:19
Yakult Brothers 38%Team Yandex 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 43:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendflyfly
KezWatson
TidehunterYang
BatriderNoticed
Queen of PainMoon
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Phoenix天命
WarlockMalady
Spirit BreakerBoBoKa
TuskSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 70%
Accuracy by game1 of 2