Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Bane
Jubei · 10 games
Disruptor
Jubei · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 5 games
Lunaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Snapfire
Lil_Nick · 5 games
Dark Willow
Cys · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Lion
Boris · 4 games
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
424 picks · 311 bans
Mars
398 picks · 579 bans
Queen of Pain
331 picks · 386 bans
Weaver
327 picks · 746 bans
Snapfire
322 picks · 177 bans
Kunkka
252 picks · 441 bans
Spirit Breaker
245 picks · 357 bans
Disruptor
241 picks · 164 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)16% vs 21%
Hero pool strength56% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:32
Eternity 48%simply TOOBASED 52%
The model gave 52% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 32:33.
Game 2prediction correct14:27
Eternity 48%simply TOOBASED 52%
The model gave 52% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 31:11.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 52%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2