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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Unknownloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gorillaz-Pridewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Unknown

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Argius · 4 games
0%
Io
Iooften banned
FeelinG · 4 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Aretes · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Robo-Z · 3 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
33%
Lion
Lion
Moonlight · 3 games
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Argius · 3 games
33%

Gorillaz-Pride

Lina
Linaoften banned
TaO · 5 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
d1smar · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
d1smar · 4 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cara · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Genek · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Genek · 3 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Cara · 3 games
67%
Bane
Bane
Genek · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
424 picks · 311 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 579 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
331 picks · 386 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
327 picks · 746 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 177 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
252 picks · 441 bans
57%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
245 picks · 357 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 164 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 67%
Hero pool strength66% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:41
Team Unknown 40%Gorillaz-Pride 60%
The model gave 60% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerArgius
43% · 60 games56% · 136 games
KunkkaNaoG
Kunkka
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBlackSoul
47% · 175 games52% · 140 games
InvokerTaO
Invoker
Tidehunter
TidehunterGreedy
51% · 232 games47% · 86 games
Legion CommanderCara
Legion Commander
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMoonlight
53% · 181 game55% · 175 games
Snapfired1smar
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroFeelinG
42% · 38 games49% · 149 games
TuskGenek
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct22:44
Team Unknown 37%Gorillaz-Pride 63%
The model gave 63% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 29:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaArgius
52% · 236 games57% · 159 games
Templar AssassinNaoG
Templar Assassin
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterBlackSoul
44% · 175 games51% · 165 games
LeshracTaO
Leshrac
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerGreedy
48% · 146 games50% · 404 games
MarsCara
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMoonlight
46% · 327 games52% · 266 games
Baned1smar
Bane
Abaddon
AbaddonFeelinG
49% · 262 games51% · 152 games
TuskGenek
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 67%
Series resultGorillaz-Pride 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2