Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomerswin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Arkosh Gaming
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
424 picks · 311 bans
Mars
398 picks · 579 bans
Queen of Pain
331 picks · 385 bans
Weaver
327 picks · 744 bans
Snapfire
322 picks · 177 bans
Kunkka
252 picks · 441 bans
Spirit Breaker
245 picks · 356 bans
Disruptor
241 picks · 164 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 18%
Hero pool strength55% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total81% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
4 Zoomers 81%Arkosh Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 30:08.
Game 2prediction correct41:29
4 Zoomers 81%Arkosh Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 53:46.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 81%
Series result4 Zoomers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2