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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 38 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 30 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 22 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boxi · 22 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 20 games
75%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 36 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 36 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 34 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 28 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 28 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 26 games
73%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 26 games
65%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 26 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 969 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 434 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 624 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 1001 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
430 picks · 474 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
426 picks · 261 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 510 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 555 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 79%
Hero pool strength55% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:33
Team Liquid 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
45% · 177 games51% · 163 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
44% · 210 games52% · 304 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordAce
50% · 176 games55% · 57 games
LargoWs
Largo
Warlock
WarlocktOfu
47% · 352 games57% · 200 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoxi
50% · 33 games51% · 224 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct11:29
Team Liquid 49%Aurora Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezmiCKe
52% · 66 games50% · 268 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
48% · 304 games52% · 125 games
BrewmasterWs
Brewmaster
Batrider
BatriderAce
50% · 255 games54% · 69 games
ViperLorenof
Viper
Mirana
MiranatOfu
61% · 57 games51% · 287 games
Shadow ShamanMira
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
TuskBoxi
44% · 463 games44% · 396 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2