Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
CHILLAXloss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ghost frogswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Ghost frogs
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mastermind · 5 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Nukkumatti · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ulnit · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 3 games
Chaos Knight
Ulnit · 3 games
Razoroften banned
OwnedMe · 3 games
Treant Protector
j4 · 3 games
Bane
j4 · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
426 picks · 306 bans
Mars
396 picks · 580 bans
Queen of Pain
328 picks · 380 bans
Weaver
324 picks · 742 bans
Snapfire
323 picks · 177 bans
Kunkka
251 picks · 441 bans
Spirit Breaker
243 picks · 352 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 163 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 30%
Hero pool strength58% CHILLAX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:39
CHILLAX 63%Ghost frogs 37%
The model gave 63% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 31:33.
Game 2prediction missed14:45
CHILLAX 63%Ghost frogs 37%
The model gave 63% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 36:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 63%
Series resultGhost frogs 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2