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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lion
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Meracle · 10 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
inYourdreaM · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
AlaCrity · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
AlaCrity · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 7 games
86%
Medusa
Medusasignature
inYourdreaM · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
43%

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 8 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
cml · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
425 picks · 303 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 581 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
325 picks · 379 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
324 picks · 740 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 177 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
249 picks · 441 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
243 picks · 348 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
238 picks · 163 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:30
Nigma Galaxy SEA 60%Polaris Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 46:18.
Game 2prediction missed25:36
Nigma Galaxy SEA 60%Polaris Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 53:46.
Game 3prediction missed20:41
Nigma Galaxy SEA 60%Polaris Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 44:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 60%
Series resultPolaris Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3