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CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 26 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 23 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 19 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
24%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Wein · 15 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 14 games
50%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 17 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 15 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 14 games
64%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 14 games
36%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
46%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
623 picks · 968 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 435 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 624 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 1001 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
430 picks · 474 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
425 picks · 261 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 512 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 553 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:8
AVULUS 50%Team Lynx 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by AVULUS in 31:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTA2000
58% · 210 games48% · 160 games
Ursa7jesu
Ursa
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
47% · 288 games53% · 163 games
Timbersawmellojul
Timbersaw
Undying
Undyingasdekor_r
52% · 127 games51% · 264 games
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWein
47% · 300 games46% · 294 games
Warlockkreker
Warlock
49% · 44 games
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct38:17
AVULUS 51%Team Lynx 49%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTA2000
50% · 172 games49% · 35 games
Drow Ranger7jesu
Drow Ranger
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
52% · 251 game45% · 119 games
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkWein
52% · 287 games49% · 112 games
Primal Beastmellojul
Primal Beast
Dazzle
Dazzleasdekor_r
50% · 146 games46% · 393 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
55% · 197 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 55%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2