Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnusloss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5ManMidaswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnus
Pangoliersignature
txhyoo1 · 6 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Chen · 5 games
Disruptor
Chen · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Jack · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 4 games
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
425 picks · 303 bans
Mars
395 picks · 577 bans
Queen of Pain
324 picks · 376 bans
Weaver
323 picks · 737 bans
Snapfire
318 picks · 177 bans
Kunkka
249 picks · 441 bans
Spirit Breaker
242 picks · 347 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 163 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Magnus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:46
Team Magnus 65%5ManMidas 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 44:57.
Game 2prediction missed24:29
Team Magnus 65%5ManMidas 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 35:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Magnus · 65%
Series result5ManMidas 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2