Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Gambit Esportsloss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gambit Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 18 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 17 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 15 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
Blizzy · 14 games
Miranasignature
Muka · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
421 picks · 303 bans
Mars
396 picks · 574 bans
Queen of Pain
321 picks · 377 bans
Weaver
321 picks · 735 bans
Snapfire
317 picks · 177 bans
Kunkka
249 picks · 439 bans
Spirit Breaker
242 picks · 341 bans
Disruptor
234 picks · 162 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:38
Gambit Esports 27%Hydra 73%
The model gave 73% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 1:15:01.
Game 2prediction correct4:22
Gambit Esports 27%Hydra 73%
The model gave 73% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 33:04.
Game 3prediction correct43:30
Gambit Esports 27%Hydra 73%
The model gave 73% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 55:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 73%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3