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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 20 games
65%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 15 games
60%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 15 games
87%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
fy · 14 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
38%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 29 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 26 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 21 game
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 21 game
38%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
cml · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 963 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 435 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 624 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 996 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 471 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 510 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
420 picks · 261 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 551 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Xtreme Gaming 67%Execration 33%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
41% · 48 games53% · 79 games
KezPalos
Kez
Batrider
BatriderXxs
53% · 235 games51% · 317 games
Queen of PainBob
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
50% · 140 games55% · 68 games
LargoTino-
Largo
Ringmaster
Ringmasterfy
43% · 195 games54% · 345 games
Shadow ShamanShanks
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
TuskxNova
50% · 322 games49% · 131 game
Dazzlecml
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct34:4
Xtreme Gaming 67%Execration 33%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNothingToSay
51% · 254 games54% · 73 games
KezPalos
Kez
Windranger
WindrangerAme
51% · 214 games48% · 205 games
KunkkaTino-
Kunkka
Slardar
SlardarXxs
49% · 169 games62% · 331 game
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willowfy
46% · 176 games50% · 233 games
MuertaShanks
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
50% · 124 games38% · 95 games
Skywrath Magecml
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 81%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2