Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 25 games
Abaddon
Roddgeee · 21 game
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
Lunaoften banned
MidOne · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 14 games
Linasignature
Moon · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 14 games
Neon Esports
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 23 games
Marssignature
Enryu · 20 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 18 games
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 17 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 15 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Tims · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
419 picks · 301 bans
Mars
395 picks · 570 bans
Queen of Pain
317 picks · 375 bans
Weaver
317 picks · 737 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 177 bans
Kunkka
248 picks · 434 bans
Spirit Breaker
239 picks · 341 bans
Ember Spirit
234 picks · 326 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total60% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:27
Team SMG 54%Neon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkMidOne
Naga SirenPalos
Queen of PainMoon
LinaMamangDaya
EarthshakerAhFu
TidehunterEnryu
DisruptorRoddgeee
LionNARMAN
Game 2prediction missed28:50
Team SMG 56%Neon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMidOne
KunkkaMamangDaya
Queen of PainMoon
Drow RangerPalos
EarthshakerAhFu
DoomEnryu
TidehunterRoddgeee
WeaverNARMAN
Game 3prediction correct35:9
Team SMG 58%Neon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 28:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMidOne
LinaMamangDaya
Queen of PainMoon
GyrocopterPalos
GrimstrokeAhFu
DoomEnryu
TidehunterRoddgeee
WeaverNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 60%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3