Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingloss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LBZSwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Phoenix Gaming
Bane
Lwwnb · 5 games
Death Prophet
Shining · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Shining · 4 games
Dark Willow
Helios · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
zone- · 3 games
Grimstroke
Lwwnb · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
M77 · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
M77 · 1 game
LBZS
Death Prophet
Shanks · 5 games
Iooften banned
CatYou · 3 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 3 games
Tusk
CatYou · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
CatYou · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
Bane
CatYou · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
418 picks · 298 bans
Mars
391 picks · 571 bans
Weaver
317 picks · 737 bans
Queen of Pain
316 picks · 373 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 176 bans
Kunkka
247 picks · 433 bans
Spirit Breaker
237 picks · 338 bans
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 324 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 38%
Hero pool strength63% LBZS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:43
Phoenix Gaming 46%LBZS 54%
The model gave 54% on LBZS — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 53:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingM77
RazorShanks
Windrangerzone-
Night StalkerMolasses
MarsShining
GrimstrokeCatYou
RubickHelios
Death ProphetLwwnb
Game 2prediction correct19:32
Phoenix Gaming 48%LBZS 52%
The model gave 52% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterM77
Queen of PainShanks
Linazone-
Centaur WarrunnerMolasses
Death ProphetShining
Shadow DemonCatYou
TuskHelios
AbaddonLwwnb
Game 3prediction correct31:34
Phoenix Gaming 46%LBZS 54%
The model gave 54% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 33:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingM77
LeshracShanks
Storm Spiritzone-
MarsMolasses
Death ProphetShining
SnapfireCatYou
TuskHelios
Dark WillowLwwnb
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 56%
Series resultLBZS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3