Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Banesignature
Fly · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 7 games
Dark Willowsignature
Hyde · 6 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 6 games
Ogre Magi
Fly · 5 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Lion
Hyde · 4 games
Marsoften banned
kpii · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
418 picks · 298 bans
Mars
391 picks · 571 bans
Weaver
317 picks · 737 bans
Queen of Pain
316 picks · 373 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 176 bans
Kunkka
247 picks · 433 bans
Spirit Breaker
237 picks · 338 bans
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 324 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:32
Lilgun 25%Talon Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:21.
Game 2prediction correct40:48
Lilgun 25%Talon Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 52:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 75%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2