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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 12 games
58%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Solo · 11 games
73%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
GeneRaL · 10 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 7 games
57%
Lion
Lion
ALOHADANCE · 6 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
ALOHADANCE · 6 games
67%

AS Monaco Gambit

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
416 picks · 298 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 567 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
316 picks · 175 bans
45%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
314 picks · 368 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
313 picks · 736 bans
56%
Kunkka
Kunkka
247 picks · 429 bans
57%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
235 picks · 333 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
234 picks · 325 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total70% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:5
Natus Vincere 70%AS Monaco Gambit 30%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 21:43.
Game 2prediction correct33:12
Natus Vincere 70%AS Monaco Gambit 30%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 26:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 70%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2