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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team SMGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
17%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 4 games
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 4 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 4 games
25%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Yowe · 4 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
PlayHard · 4 games
25%

Team SMG

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 24 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Roddgeee · 22 games
59%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
74%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
MidOne · 15 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
AhFu · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 14 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 14 games
93%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
414 picks · 299 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 565 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
316 picks · 176 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
311 picks · 738 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
310 picks · 368 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
248 picks · 422 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 324 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
234 picks · 328 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)19% vs 47%
Hero pool strength66% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:35
TNC Predator 35%Team SMG 65%
The model gave 65% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYowe
55% · 197 games53% · 138 games
TerrorbladeMidOne
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYoungGodLevi
44% · 170 games48% · 198 games
LinaMoon
Lina
Dark Seer
Dark Seerxiaoyu154
45% · 117 games48% · 257 games
LionAhFu
Lion
Tiny
TinyPlayHard
50% · 169 games53% · 168 games
BaneRoddgeee
Bane
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFebby
54% · 108 games
Game 2prediction missed34:19
TNC Predator 33%Team SMG 67%
The model gave 67% on Team SMG — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 39:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYoungGodLevi
49% · 138 games53% · 117 games
Templar AssassinMidOne
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYowe
43% · 148 games49% · 177 games
Death ProphetMoon
Death Prophet
Beastmaster
Beastmasterxiaoyu154
61% · 122 games56% · 144 games
Elder TitanAhFu
Elder Titan
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPlayHard
39% · 88 games50% · 214 games
BaneRoddgeee
Bane
Io
IoFebby
47% · 156 games
Game 3prediction correct9:37
TNC Predator 35%Team SMG 65%
The model gave 65% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 25:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYoungGodLevi
42% · 100 games48% · 162 games
RazorMidOne
Razor
Puck
PuckYowe
46% · 176 games48% · 160 games
Queen of PainMoon
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
Tidehunterxiaoyu154
48% · 152 games56% · 121 game
EarthshakerAhFu
Earthshaker
Enchantress
EnchantressFebby
50% · 67 games58% · 166 games
BaneRoddgeee
Bane
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPlayHard
52% · 114 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 74%
Series resultTeam SMG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3