Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
InterActive Philippinesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Pangolier
Lym- · 15 games
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 12 games
Mirana
Lym- · 12 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 11 games
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 11 games
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 9 games
Nature's Prophet
db- · 8 games
InterActive Philippines
Marsoften banned
Luciano · 6 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Luciano · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Kim0 · 6 games
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 5 games
Lion
Matt · 5 games
Rubick
Matt · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Marb · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Luciano · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
415 picks · 297 bans
Mars
387 picks · 562 bans
Snapfire
317 picks · 176 bans
Queen of Pain
307 picks · 366 bans
Weaver
306 picks · 736 bans
Kunkka
246 picks · 418 bans
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 322 bans
Spirit Breaker
234 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% InterActive Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% InterActive Philippines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:37
Army Geniuses 46%InterActive Philippines 54%
The model gave 54% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingdb-
Anti-MageMarb
Void SpiritAzur4
Ember SpiritNishababy
PangolierwoMy
TidehunterLuciano
LionVarizh
SnapfireMatt
RubickLym-
GrimstrokeKim0
Game 2prediction missed48:13
Army Geniuses 47%InterActive Philippines 53%
The model gave 53% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassindb-
KunkkaMarb
Queen of PainAzur4
LinaNishababy
MarswoMy
Outworld DestroyerLuciano
WeaverVarizh
TinyMatt
MiranaLym-
Death ProphetKim0
Game 3prediction missed46:14
Army Geniuses 44%InterActive Philippines 56%
The model gave 56% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 37:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassindb-
MedusaMarb
Ember SpiritAzur4
BatriderNishababy
MarswoMy
BeastmasterLuciano
Crystal MaidenVarizh
EnchantressKim0
Monkey KingLym-
GrimstrokeMatt
Model check result
Model favoriteInterActive Philippines · 56%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3