Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Wildcard Gaming
Lunaoften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
iAnnihilate · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
The Warden · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Sunlight · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Sunlight · 2 games
Earth Spirit
The Warden · 2 games
Hoodwink
The Warden · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
414 picks · 296 bans
Mars
387 picks · 560 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 175 bans
Queen of Pain
306 picks · 366 bans
Weaver
305 picks · 735 bans
Kunkka
246 picks · 418 bans
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 321 bans
Spirit Breaker
234 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:7
simply TOOBASED 30%Wildcard Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 32:50.
Game 2prediction correct21:35
simply TOOBASED 30%Wildcard Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 34:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 70%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2