Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 17 games
Linaoften banned
Bob · 16 games
Abaddonsignature
RR · 13 games
Pucksignature
Bob · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 11 games
Batridersignature
Bob · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
404 picks · 294 bans
Mars
385 picks · 555 bans
Snapfire
314 picks · 176 bans
Weaver
304 picks · 727 bans
Queen of Pain
299 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
244 picks · 412 bans
Ember Spirit
234 picks · 320 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 29%
Hero pool strength56% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total79% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:38
T1 79%Execration 21%
The model gave 79% on T1 — the game was taken by Execration in 36:02.
Game 2prediction missed21:22
T1 79%Execration 21%
The model gave 79% on T1 — the game was taken by Execration in 37:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 79%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2