Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:0series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Spirit Breakeroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 7 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 4 games
Razoroften banned
YoungGodLevi · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Yowe · 3 games
Neon Esports
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 23 games
Marssignature
Enryu · 19 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 15 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 15 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Tims · 14 games
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
404 picks · 294 bans
Mars
384 picks · 555 bans
Snapfire
313 picks · 176 bans
Weaver
304 picks · 727 bans
Queen of Pain
299 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
242 picks · 412 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 156 bans
Ember Spirit
233 picks · 319 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)13% vs 42%
Hero pool strength66% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total74% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:26
TNC Predator 35%Neon Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYoungGodLevi
Templar AssassinPalos
Viperxiaoyu154
LinaMamangDaya
KunkkaYowe
TidehunterEnryu
RubickPlayHard
SnapfireNARMAN
Death ProphetFebby
Game 2prediction missed21:10
TNC Predator 35%Neon Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 24:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingYoungGodLevi
KunkkaMamangDaya
Ember SpiritYowe
GyrocopterPalos
Tidehunterxiaoyu154
MarsEnryu
TinyPlayHard
MiranaNARMAN
Death ProphetFebby
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 74%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2